East Asia Forum
Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific



China’s rebalancing will not be automatic (Feb 22)
Author: Nicholas Lardy, PIIE The imminent rebalancing of China’s economy has been forecast repeatedly over the past several years. With the shrinking of China’s external surplus during 2011, proponents of this argument have all but declared victory. The decrease of the current account surplus, from 10.1 per cent in 2007 to less than 3 per [...]China’s economic rebalancing already underwayMalaysia’s New Economic Model as a rebalancing strategyIs China’s economy changing course?


Southeast Asia’s economic performance in 2012 (Feb 21)
Author: Vikram Nehru, Carnegie Endowment Some Chinese astrologers have pronounced that 2012, the year of the dragon, will be particularly volatile. But you do not have to believe in the Chinese zodiac to know that Southeast Asia is likely to have a tumultuous year. In 2012, Southeast Asia faces the prospect of increased economic uncertainty [...]Asia, Europe and regional cooperation in 2012The financial crisis and what’s in store for Southeast AsiaWill Asia step up to the global challenges of 2012?


Burma opens to a round of applause (Feb 21)
Author: Sigourney Irvine, ANU The Burmese government recently pardoned 651 prisoners, an act that international media greeted with positive fanfare and applause. It may be thought absurd for a government to conduct such a mass amnesty, and the reaction of the media may seem even more out of place. But for Burma, absurdity has long [...]Burma in 2008Washington changes gears on BurmaBurma: a test that ASEAN may be failing


The future of Japanese manufacturing (Feb 20)
Author: Yoshisuke Iinuma, The Oriental Economist The household-electronics industry has long been equivalent in stature to Japan’s automotive industry, and is seen as a symbol of the country’s strong manufacturing sector. But now its central product — television manufacturing — is on the verge of collapse and the major electronics firms are haemorrhaging red ink. [...]Investment by Japanese automobile manufacturers in India – a win-win situationKeeping Japan’s disaster-damaged auto supply chains competitiveChinese manufacturing firms’ overseas direct investment


Cambodia’s ASEAN chairmanship in 2012 (Feb 20)
Author: Rodolfo C. Severino, ISEAS For the second time in ASEAN’s history, Cambodia has taken over the chairmanship of this ten-nation association. It first chaired ASEAN in 2002–03, when the country had been a member for only three years. Yet the world and the region have changed considerably in the last 10 years. One notable [...]ASEAN and the Cambodia-Thailand ConflictThai-Cambodian conflict: an obstacle to the ASEAN Community 2015?US-China-Cambodia Relations: The trilateral balance


Asia’s century (Feb 20)
Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum The idea that the world has entered the Asian century has wide and credible currency. Its foundation, of course, lies in the rise of Chinese and Indian economic power and the integration of the East Asian economy that has accompanied China’s spectacular growth. In Australia the government has [...]America and China: strategic choices in the Asian CenturyEurope in the Pacific centuryUS, China and Australia’s Asian century: a view on Hugh White’s argument


America and China: strategic choices in the Asian Century (Feb 19)
Author: Hugh White, ANU Four months ago, as Australia’s parliamentarians rose to give President Barack Obama a standing ovation, it seemed they had already decided how best to navigate the profound strategic changes that must inevitably flow from the shift in relative economic weight from West to East. Obama laid out in the starkest terms [...]US, China and Australia’s Asian century: a view on Hugh White’s argumentAsia’s centuryThe rise of the Asian century


Sustaining Myanmar’s political and economic reforms (Feb 18)
Author: Vikram Nehru, Carnegie Endowment Political and economic reforms and the lifting of international sanctions have set in motion Myanmar’s re-entry into the family of nations. Already, the release of over 600 political prisoners and other economic and political reforms, including the re-registration of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy for the 1 [...]Toward real national reconciliation in Myanmar?Why democracy will foster ethnic reconciliation in MyanmarDétente and the Myanmar spring?


US embargo on Iranian oil a blow to US-China relations (Feb 17)
Author: Kai Ito, ANU Beijing has chosen to defy Washington’s embargo on Iranian oil. While this does not bode well for putting an end to Iran’s uranium-enrichment program, the embargo also represents another worrying failure for US-China relations. Sanctions on Iran have proven one of the few areas of recent progress in the otherwise troublesome US-China [...]EU-China relations: Disappointment after CopenhagenBlow-out in inter-Korean relationsUS-India relations: Problems posed by Afghanistan and Iran


Pakistan and the Afghan endgame: need for a rethink (Feb 17)
Author: Sandy Gordon, ANU Washington has now moderated Secretary for Defense Leon Panetta’s statement that the US, as a fighting force, would be in the barracks by mid-2013. US forces may now come out to fight as and when necessary until their departure at the end of 2014. But that does not change much. The [...]The West must tackle Pakistan to fight TalibanThe Afghan presidential elections: some scenariosPakistan risks ethnic strife